Rep. Park Geun-hye, former chairwoman of the ruling Grand National Party, has maintained an overwhelming lead in all recent opinion polls on those hoping to run in the 2012 presidential election.

However, observers say it remains to be seen whether Park will continue to remain the favorite in the polls, citing the possibility of her suffering an unexpected setback in the unstable political scene before the presidential vote occurs in December 2012.

Park, 58, garnered 30-40 percent of support in recent polls while those who came in second earned single-digit approval ratings.

In a recent poll conducted by MBC and Korea Research Center, Park obtained 42.3 percent support, the first time she polled above 40 percent.

In the poll, former Welfare Minister Ryu Si-min of the People Participation Party ranked second with 8.3 percent while Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon of the GNP came in third with 7.4 percent. Sohn Hak-kyu, leader of the main opposition Democratic Party, gained 5.8 percent while Gyeonggi Governor Kim Moon-su received 5.6 percent.

Park apparently began her official activity toward the election last month by hosting a public hearing on welfare policies and launching a think tank to map out her campaign strategies. Such moves appeared to have partially helped maintain her current popularity, observers said.

Park, daughter of former President Park Chung-hee, who is credited with his economic leadership in the 1960s and 1970s, but criticized for his authoritarian rule, is an influential factional leader who commands the loyalty of nearly a third of GNP lawmakers.

With two years remaining before the election, experts said it is almost impossible to predict how things will change in the political scene.

“There are too many external variables in Korea’s unstable politics rather than personal ones that will affect the election outcome. They include inter-Korean ties, economic conditions, dynamics within each political party and who the current president will favor among the hopefuls,” said Lee Chung-hee, politics professor at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies.

“Park’s image of keeping promises with the public and not going back on her word appears to have appealed to the public. Nostalgia for her father who led Korea’s rapid economic growth also apparently helped her, while young people do not know much about her father’s authoritarian rule and suppression of human rights.”

In another poll conducted by Hankyoreh and Research Plus, Park gained 37.5 percent while she received 35.3 percent in a poll by Munhwa Ilbo and The Opinion, 34.6 percent in a poll by KBS and Media Research and 33.5 percent in a poll by Hankook Ilbo and Media Research.

In the various polls, Ryu received 5 to 8 percent of support while Oh obtained 4 to 7 percent. Sohn gained 5 to 6 percent, ranking second among opposition figures. 

Gyeonggi Governor Kim received around 5 percent, coming in third among hopefuls from the ruling bloc. GNP Rep. Chung Mong-joon, who had recently paid less attention to local politics while focusing on the country’s efforts to host the 2022 World Cup, obtained only 2 to 4 percent of support. 

In a poll conducted by the Seoul Shinmun and Hankook Research, Park gained 29.8 percent of support. But she still remained the indisputable favorite in the poll. The poll also included U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon as a presidential hopeful. Ban obtained 12.2 percent, trailing Park by 17.6 percentage points.

By Song Sang-ho (sshluck@heraldcorp.com)