Korea’s average temperature could rise 2.2 to 4.2 degrees Celsius by the 22nd century, a recent government report on climate change warned Sunday.

The National Institute of Environmental Research, along with a team at Seoul National University, studied climate and air conditions in Korea and East Asia by applying two different economic growth patterns.

According to the first scenario, which assumed rapid economic growth accompanied by greenhouse emissions continuing at the current speed, the average temperature on the Korean Peninsula would be 14 degrees Celsius in the 2100s, as compared to 9.8 degrees Celsius between 1970 and 2000.

By 2100, the study found, the global population could surpass 21 billion, with the CO2 emissions surging from the current 22 billion tons to 160 billion tons, the study found.

The ozone level during the peak season in summer also will increase from 30 ppb to 39 to 42 ppb in 2020, the scenario predicted.

However, the second scenario, based on the nation’s environmentally sustainable growth in the future, said that the average temperature would see 2.2 degrees Celsius increase from now.

Air quality was also expected to improve as the emission of air pollutants starts to decrease gradually from 2020, the environmental scenario said.

Both scenarios predicted a shorter winter season in major cities by the 2100s. Based on the growth scenario, the length of winter could be half that of the 2000s.

By Lee Ji-yoon (jylee@heraldcorp.com)