The Assad dynasty in Syria has miscalculated by applying overwhelming force to try to stop the five-month uprising there.

After four decades of abuse of power in Syria, the rulers in Damascus are vulnerable, morally and politically. It is hard to imagine how the Assad family can continue much longer to hold on to power.

When Hafez al-Assad passed away in 2000, his people expected change. The Syrians saw in his departure a historic opportunity to replace a family-based, party-controlled and minority-dominated police state.

Bashar al-Assad, who replaced his father at the helm, was supposed to be more moderate. While he initially tried to introduce a semblance of change, he was unable to transform a system. To the people’s dismay, the son followed in the footsteps of his father, especially in the response to the Arab Spring.

Bashar failed to read the signs of the times. Syria was an exception, he claimed.

Frustrated, the people took to the street to express a genuine desire for freedom. Public demonstrations offended the tyrant of Damascus. So he cracked down: His security forces have killed nearly 2,000 protesters. According to the Syrian government, the rebels have killed about 500 of the defense forces. Thousands of people languish in jail.

Syria is heading toward paralysis, as the economy is hemorrhaging, the uprising is expanding and international sanctions are tightening.

In Syria, unlike in Egypt or Tunisia, the army is deeply loyal to the ruler, notwithstanding reports of some defections. The Assad family, leading figures in the military, key security agents and elite business figures are closely connected. Together, they are fighting for their survival. But they can’t hold on forever.

A post-Assad Syria is much to be hoped for, but the list of problems it would face is long.

There is anticipation of revenge against the ruling Alawite minority community and a Sunni fundamentalist backlash against Syria’s Christian population. There is fear of civil war among rival ideological, ethnic and sectarian factions. There is worry about how the economy would recover. There is suspicion that Israel is keen to exploit a possible meltdown in Syria. And, finally, there is fear that the United States might intervene covertly to try to turn the new Syria into a Washington client state.

The Syrians are entitled to experiment with political change at their own pace, with their own means and without regional or international interference. They deserve to overthrow a regime that has run out of legitimacy.

By Ghassan Michel Rubeiz

Ghassan Michel Rubeiz is the former secretary of the Middle East for the Geneva-based World Council of Churches. He wrote this for Progressive Media Project, a source of liberal commentary on domestic and international issues. ― Ed.

(McClatchy-Tribune Information Services)