The Korea Herald

피터빈트

[Editorial] Kim’s Russia visit

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Published : Aug. 26, 2011 - 19:39

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North Korean leader Kim Jong-il is on his train journey back home after talks with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in Siberia on Wednesday. As expected, their talks focused on Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program and Moscow’s aid to the North. But no fresh ground was broken.

At the talks, Kim proposed to resume the stalled six-party talks on denuclearization without any preconditions. He appeared to be sweetening his proposal with a remark that he was prepared to impose a moratorium on the production and testing of nuclear weapons.

But few experienced North Korea experts would jump to the conclusion that the prospects for denuclearization were brightened because the proposed moratorium could come “in the course of the (six-way) talks,” as Kim was quoted as saying by a Russian presidential spokeswoman, not ahead of the talks, as demanded by the United States.

Those remarks were apparently highly calculated, given that North Korea has proved to be particular about wording on numerous occasions during previous negotiations with South Korea, the United States and others. That was made clearer when Kim’s remarks were juxtaposed against what the then U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates demanded in January. Gates said a moratorium on Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile testing was a precondition to returning to the six-party talks, which involve the two Koreas, the United States, China, Japan and Russia.

North Korea would have to declare a moratorium and take additional steps in advance, as demanded by South Korea and the United States, if it wishes to move ahead with the six-way talks, aimed at securing food aid and lifting international sanctions slapped on the communist state following its 2009 missile and nuclear tests.

No wonder the U.S. response to the Kim-Medvedev talks was lukewarm at best. A State Department spokesman was quoted as saying the talks were “welcome but insufficient.”

As murky as the prospects for the denuclearization talks are those for Russia’s aid to North Korea ― a state that is cash-strapped, if not bankrupt. Not much is coming from Russia, though it reportedly committed itself to providing the flood-damaged North Korea with 50,000 tons of wheat. According to a news report, however, Medvedev reminded Kim that North Korea’s liabilities to Russia amount to $11 billion ― the $8 billion North Korea borrowed from the Soviet Union and the interest that has since accrued.

Instead of providing any more aid for North Korea, Russia wanted to share benefits from a project it wished to launch as soon as possible ― the construction of a pipeline carrying gas to South Korea via the North. According to one estimate, exports through the pipeline would cut the transportation cost to one third of the maritime transportation cost.

In 2008, Russia agreed with South Korea to export 10 billion cubic meters of natural gas or more each year. But little progress has since been made, with North Korea refusing to make any commitment to pipeline construction though it could earn $100 million each year from the project.

This time, however, North Korea endorsed the pipeline project. Emerging from his talks with Kim Jong-il, Medvedev said progress was made in the proposal to build a gas-export pipeline. He said he agreed with Kim to establish a special commission “to outline the details of bilateral cooperation on gas transit through the territory of North Korea.”

Still, there is no guarantee the three-way project will begin anytime soon, if it ever does. The chances are slim that South Korea will endorse the project, given that it does not trust North Korea as a business partner. Recalling that the communist state is in the process of illegally confiscating South Korean assets at its mountainside resort on the east coast, the South Korean unification minister said, “What country, corporation or individual would invest (in the project) when none of them has an iota of trust in North Korea?”

If North Korea wishes to free itself of international sanctions, secure food aid or earn hard currency from the pipeline project, the first thing it needs to do is demonstrate its trustworthiness, not by word but by action. There is no other way.