Predictability is a rare commodity in Korean politics. Change in voter sentiment is so abrupt, as seen during the recent Seoul mayoral election, that correct predictions are elusive.

Few would have believed several months ago that a social activist trained in law would gain so much popularity so swiftly and grab the post of Seoul mayor as an independent. Nor would it have been thought that a university professor with no party affiliation would be mentioned as one of the most powerful potential candidates for presidency.

In a similar vein, it would be a risky venture to forecast what would become of the Democratic Party ahead of the next parliamentary elections, scheduled for April. Yet, few would be surprised to hear that its days are numbered as the main opposition party. Worse still, it may be forced to close up shop.

True, the Democratic Party is scheduled to hold its national convention next month to elect its new leadership. With the party divided over the issue, however, it is not clear whether or not it will be convened as scheduled. If it is convened, there will be no guarantee of its post-election viability as one of the nation’s leading parties.

The party is embroiled in an internecine struggle on what course to take. One group seeks to reinvigorate the party by electing a new leadership at the convention and inviting outsiders ― including leaders of civic society and labor activists ― to join it in the nominations for the April elections. Its opponents, however, call for the creation of a new party in a merger with those powerful forces, proposing to hold its inaugural convention, instead of a national convention, next month.

Each of the two sides believes the outcome of the fierce fight will determine who will gain the upper hand in the future. But that may not be of much concern to civil society, allies to the late progressive President Roh Moo-hyun and other outsiders.

To those groups, the Democratic Party is not what it used to be ― the political force serving the interests of liberal voters as the sole alternatives to the conservative ruling Grand National Party. They themselves have proved their potential of growing into a force powerful enough to replace the Democratic Party as a liberal bastion.

The Democratic Party has only itself to blame for its loss of strength. It has lost much of its vitality by allowing itself to gray fast, instead of seeking to connect with young liberals, as evidenced by its membership demographics. Party members in their 20s and 30s account for less than 20 percent in Seoul when those age groups account for 44 percent of the capital’s total population.

The possibility cannot be ruled out that those separate groups will be catalyzed into a formidable political force, with or without help from the Democratic Party, during the run-up to the April elections. Indeed, that was what happened ahead of the Oct. 26 Seoul mayoral by-election.

The catalyst was professor Ahn Cheol-soo of Seoul National University, formerly a medical doctor and an anti-virus software developer, who had cultivated himself as an apolitical icon of reform for young people. Young, liberal voters rallied behind him when he announced he would run in the mayoral competition for a change in Korean politics. Their support shifted to Park Won-soon, a social activist, who ran in the mayoral election as an independent, when Ahn gave up his bid for the mayoral post in favor of Park.

For liberals, nothing would be better than the Democratic Party’s merger with progressive political forces, social advocacy groups and even labor activists. If such a new party is created, Mayor Park says he will join. Professor Ahn, who has made no such commitment, may follow suit.

The critical issue for the Democratic Party now is not whether or not to hold its national convention as scheduled but what power-sharing concessions to make to its potential merger partners. It needs to make a decision soon.