Taiwan will open the year that is likely to be seen as a political landmark by holding presidential and parliamentary elections on Jan. 14. The results may stiffen relations with mainland China and put the U.S. in an uneasy position between the two.

President Ma Ying-jeou and his main opponent Tsai Ing-wen have been engaged in a tight race. A recent poll showed Tsai from the Democratic Progressive Party trailing Ma, who is running to win a second term, by 1 percentage point. If elected, Tsai will become Taiwan’s first female president.

Ma’s policy of tying Taiwan’s high-tech economy ever closer to China’s lucrative markets has helped ease tensions across the Taiwan Strait, silencing Beijing’s threats of using military force.

Washington has apparently seen the rapprochement as serving its interests by reducing the chances it would be embroiled in a conflict at a time when it is trying to reinvigorate its economy.

The DPP has advocated formal independence from China, as opposed to Beijing’s formula of one nation and two systems, which has been accepted by the Kuomintang party led by Ma.

Tsai’s election could produce a less mainland-friendly administration on the island, stirring up the waters across the strait. It might also drag the U.S. and China into a confrontation.

By Kim Kyung-ho (khkim@heraldcorp.com)