Worst dry spell in decades expected to deepen food shortage


The worst drought in decades is threatening to aggravate already serious food shortages in North Korea, posing a grave challenge to its new leader Kim Jong-un.

A series of provocative acts, most recently an April 13 rocket launch, has curtailed foreign aid to the country that depends on outside assistance to feed its 24 million people.

An expected food crisis could force Kim to make a choice ― whether to open dialogue with the international community or to tighten the iron-fist rule to preempt any signs of destabilization, analysts say.

Agricultural peril

The North’s official Korean Central News Agency said the drought is the country’s worst since 1962. The country has seen little rain since April 27, according to its state-run weather agency. Pyongyang’s precipitation was a paltry 2 millimeters, while the Chinese border city of Dandong got just 1 millimeter of rain during the period.

The western coastal areas, long deemed a breadbasket for the country, were among the hardest hit. Authorities allowed Associate Press reporters to visit the western city of Nampo, where the U.S. news agency said “sun-baked fields” appeared parched and cracked. 

“I’ve been working at the farm for more than 30 years, but I have never experienced this kind of severe drought,” AP quoted a farmer named An Song-min as saying.

Experts say the increasingly severe dry spell may not only endanger crops but also damage the power of Kim, who became supreme leader following the death of his father, Kim Jong-il, in December.

“Kim Jong-il’s goal of establishing North Korea as a strong, prosperous nation this year has already gone up in smoke,” said Kim Young-hui, a North Korean defector and expert in the country’s economy at state-run Korea Finance Corp in Seoul.

“The North’s self-publication of drought has two purposes ― drumming up public participation in its nationwide agricultural campaign and attracting support from the international community.”

Food shortages are projected to intensify in the coming months with up to 3 million estimated by the U.N. World Food Program to be at risk of starvation.

The U.N. body said it plans to scale back its aid by excluding 140 senior North Koreans from its list of recipients largely comprised of women and children. The agency last year provided 83,000 tons of food, merely a quarter of its initial target.

“By now, all the students from middle school to college, as well as housewives, must have been being mobilized to irrigate farms and dig up wells for the planting season,” Kim said.

The ongoing famine does not seem to be as severe as that in the 1990s, during which at least 2 million North Koreans are believed to have died of hunger, she noted.

The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization said in its outlook that the North would secure 2 million tons of rice this year, up nearly 18 percent from 2011. The sum includes 300,000 tons in international aid and translates into more than 70 kilograms of rice per person, the highest level in six years.

“Given limited help from overseas, the North Korean government is rather aiming to draw greater participation in farming to boost output and let the world know that its people are suffering,” Kim said.

Challenges to regime

For the young Kim Jong-un, pulling his country out of decades-long economic devastation is one of the most urgent tasks at which his father failed, said Yang Un-chul, director of unification strategy studies at Sejong Institute.

“Though Kim Jong-il succeeded in maintaining the system according to his father’s teachings, North Korea’s economic power and quality of life has been in a stalemate,” Yang said in a recent report.

“He blew several chances for reform all the while, resulting in a critical recession. The only help came from the international community including South Korea, and no reforms or open-door policy have been undertaken at home to tackle its own economic crisis.”

During his 17-year rule, the senior Kim formulated a two-pronged economic policy. On the domestic front, he trumpeted a “self-reliant” socialist economy. While turning a blind eye to rampant black markets after the rationing system effectively went bust, he kept them in check to prevent his country from going capitalist.

Outside, Kim strove to entice foreign investors. He promoted trade with China and other countries and installed free economic zones in remote border regions, despite meager outcome.

While embracing his father’s legacy, Swiss-educated Kim is expected to open up the cloistered country a little more to the world. The military-focused state has also recently codified its nuclear-armed status, reaffirming its commitment to transform into a “strong and prosperous” nation.

“Kim Jong-un will expand the open-door policy and take concrete steps to crystallize outcome,” said Park Hee-jin of the Institute of North Korea Studies at Dongguk University in Seoul.

“Previously, the North’s conundrum was whether or not to open. Now, it’s more of whether it is able to bring achievements.”

Still, agriculture remains the main means of living for 24 million North Koreans. When their bread and butter at hand come under threat, the oppressive regime’s vision for a nuclear power may sound less convincing.

That, in turn, would push more of them to risk their lives to escape the country, said Cho Han-bum, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute of National Unification.

“The prolonged economic crisis has accelerated relaxation of North Korean society and sharply increased the number of defectors since 2000,” Cho said in a recent analysis.

“The North has a bare chance to tackle its economic situation this year as well. If the situation gets worse, it could undermine the fragile power base of Kim Jong-un and cause provocations against the South.”

More starving North Koreans are forecast to cross the borders with China. A looming upsurge in refugee inflows will likely place a burden on China, which is already grappling with an increasing number of North Korean defectors, many of whom seek to enter South Korea.

More than 23,500 North Koreans have taken refuge in the South since the 1950-53 Korean War. The figure constantly rose on a yearly basis ― from 1,383 in 2005 to 2,927 in 2009 ― according to the Unification Ministry.

A 2011 U.S. congressional report said that up to 100,000 North Korean orphans are living in China, Pyongyang’s sole major ally and provider of food and fuel. China has been criticized for deporting North Korean defectors, whom it calls “illegal economic migrants,” despite torture, labor camp or even death they face back home.

Shriveled foreign assistance

The tension following its failed rocket launch on April 13 and concerns about its possible nuclear test has further worsened the situation.

The cash-strapped North agreed with the U.S. on Feb. 29 to put a moratorium on its nuclear projects in return for 240,000 tons of food aid. The North’s provocation resulted in the revocation of the so-called Leap Day deal.

Recent satellite imagery indicates that the North has recently upgraded its old rocket launch site in the northeastern town of Musudan and carried out mining and excavation activity at its atomic test site in Punggye.

Concerned parties are paying keen attention to how the severe crop damage will affect the North’s future course of action.

U.S. officials said two weeks ago that Washington may consider reviving the deal if Pyongyang changes course and cause no additional provocations as it promised before.

“The United States would like to get to a place where we could once again contemplate providing nutritional assistance to North Korea,” Glyn Davies, U.S. special envoy on North Korea, said last week.

While defending its nuclear program as a “self-defense” measure, Pyongyang said late last month it has no plan for an atomic test for the time being and remains open to dialogue.

Pyongyang has been searching for alternative donors and diplomatic partners. It has recently sent its high-ranking officials to Southeast Asia in an apparent bid to perk up foreign assistance and investment.

Kim Yong-nam, president of the Presidium of North Korea’s parliament, visited Singapore and Indonesia last month. The KCNA said Tuesday a North Korean delegation led by Kim Yong-il, secretary of the Central Committee of the Worker’s Party, has left for a weeklong tour with stops in Laos, Vietnam and Myanmar.

Indonesian media reported last week that Jakarta plans to provide Pyongyang with $2 million in humanitarian aid. They cited Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa as saying that his government is discussing distribution methods with the WFP and UNICEF.

The poverty-stricken North’s past appeals for food aid were met with skepticism due to worries that it would benefit the country’s military and elite before reaching the hungry rank and file.

The U.S. suspended food handouts in 2009 after Pyongyang banished foreign food distribution monitors.
Seoul rolled back state-level support after conservative President Lee Myung-bak was sworn in in February 2008. It then severed it completely following the killing of a South Korean tourist in the North’s Mt. Geumgang resort in the summer of 2008. Ties have been further worsened by the North’s naval and artillery attacks in 2010 that killed about 50 people. Civic groups continued to provide humanitarian aid, however.

Stakes are high as the “food loans” the North took out from the southern neighbor’s two previous liberal governments near maturity. Seoul said last month it has reminded Pyongyang of its due date on June 7.

“It’s rather nonsensical if the South Korean government expects the North to be able to pay off the debt,” said Kim at the KoFC.

“Given the current political strain and economic situation, the best deal the South can get is to receive minerals like rare earths or development rights instead of cash. That way, the two Koreas can defuse tension and improve relations.”

By Shin Hyon-hee (heeshin@heraldcorp.com)