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Brazil economists cut both their 2014 and 2015 economic growth forecasts for the fourth straight week, as above-target inflation continues to sap purchasing power and confidence.
Brazil’s economy will expand 1.16 percent this year and 1.60 percent next year, compared with the previous week’s forecast of 1.24 percent and 1.73 percent, respectively, according to the June 20 central bank survey of about 100 analysts published today.
President Dilma Rousseff, who is up for re-election in October, has failed to stop consumer prices from surging toward the top of the central bank’s target range. Annual inflation running at the highest level in a year has coincided with faltering industrial and consumer confidence. The central bank this week will release its revised 2014 growth forecast after signaling in the minutes to its May 27-28 monetary policy meeting that domestic activity has become less intense.
Annual inflation in mid-June accelerated to 6.41 percent from 6.31 percent the month prior, the national statistics agency said on June 18. The central bank targets annual inflation at 4.5 percent, plus or minus two percentage points.
Central bankers on May 28 decided to hold the benchmark Selic unchanged at 11 percent after increasing borrowing costs by 375 basis points during the previous nine meetings. In the minutes to their May 27-28 meeting, policy makers said inflation shows some persistence and that part of the effects of the Selic rise are still to come.
Latin America’s largest economy grew 0.2 percent in the first quarter, half the pace of the expansion recorded during the last three months of 2013. Investment, industry and family consumption contracted on the quarter.
There are signs the slowdown may be persisting in the second quarter. Industrial output fell by 0.3 percent in April as capital goods production dropped, while retail revenue shrank 0.4 percent on the month falling supermarket sales, according to the national statistics agency.
On June 26, the central bank will publish its quarterly inflation report, which will include its revised estimate for gross domestic product growth this year.
Rousseff has maintained a lead over her main election competitor, according to an Ibope poll published on June 19. Support for Rousseff ahead of the Oct. 5 election was 39 percent, compared with 38 percent in an Ibope poll earlier this month.
Runner-up Aecio Neves garnered 21 percent of votes, compared with 22 percent in the previous survey. The poll, which had a margin of error of two percentage points, was commissioned by the National Industry Confederation and interviewed 2,002 people from June 13 to June 15. (Bloomberg)
Brazil’s economy will expand 1.16 percent this year and 1.60 percent next year, compared with the previous week’s forecast of 1.24 percent and 1.73 percent, respectively, according to the June 20 central bank survey of about 100 analysts published today.
President Dilma Rousseff, who is up for re-election in October, has failed to stop consumer prices from surging toward the top of the central bank’s target range. Annual inflation running at the highest level in a year has coincided with faltering industrial and consumer confidence. The central bank this week will release its revised 2014 growth forecast after signaling in the minutes to its May 27-28 monetary policy meeting that domestic activity has become less intense.
Annual inflation in mid-June accelerated to 6.41 percent from 6.31 percent the month prior, the national statistics agency said on June 18. The central bank targets annual inflation at 4.5 percent, plus or minus two percentage points.
Central bankers on May 28 decided to hold the benchmark Selic unchanged at 11 percent after increasing borrowing costs by 375 basis points during the previous nine meetings. In the minutes to their May 27-28 meeting, policy makers said inflation shows some persistence and that part of the effects of the Selic rise are still to come.
Latin America’s largest economy grew 0.2 percent in the first quarter, half the pace of the expansion recorded during the last three months of 2013. Investment, industry and family consumption contracted on the quarter.
There are signs the slowdown may be persisting in the second quarter. Industrial output fell by 0.3 percent in April as capital goods production dropped, while retail revenue shrank 0.4 percent on the month falling supermarket sales, according to the national statistics agency.
On June 26, the central bank will publish its quarterly inflation report, which will include its revised estimate for gross domestic product growth this year.
Rousseff has maintained a lead over her main election competitor, according to an Ibope poll published on June 19. Support for Rousseff ahead of the Oct. 5 election was 39 percent, compared with 38 percent in an Ibope poll earlier this month.
Runner-up Aecio Neves garnered 21 percent of votes, compared with 22 percent in the previous survey. The poll, which had a margin of error of two percentage points, was commissioned by the National Industry Confederation and interviewed 2,002 people from June 13 to June 15. (Bloomberg)
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Articles by Korea Herald
