In South Korean political terminology, the “North Wind” means the North Korean factor in major political events in the South, such as general elections. Just as northwesterly winds thrash the Korean Peninsula and make its winters harsher, North Korea can influence the South’s social climate by affecting people’s sense of security, hence the North Wind.

Past military-backed administrations used to play up signs of North Korea’s aggressiveness, like shootings along the border, to rally public support during election periods. They reasoned that scared people, fearing domestic instability, would give their votes to those in power.

The North Wind remains over this land, though it may change directions. The present leftist government is trying to recall the North Wind, not to frighten people but to lull them into a false sense of security by demonstrating that its soft stance toward the North worked. The problem is that the Moon Jae-in administration is paying too high a price for the North Wind 2021.

For President Moon, the best thing the North Wind can produce now is another summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un before the March 2022 presidential election, which Moon believes would be a blessing for the ruling Democratic Party. If realized, it could portray him as a great peacemaker who met the North Korean chief five times for earnest dialogue during his five-year tenure.

Compared with his predecessors, even Presidents Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun -- each of whom met once in Pyongyang with Kim Jong-il, Kim Jong-un’s father -- Moon’s record is truly remarkable. He even played a role in arranging three meetings between former US President Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un, including one at the Korean truce village of Panmunjom.

Since his meetings with Moon and Trump in 2018 and 2019, Kim Jong-un has allowed some time to go by with pauses in his open challenges to the international security situation. Pyongyang’s TV broadcasts showed no spectacles of long-range missile launches but focused instead on the young leader’s on-the-spot guidance at industrial sites. However, when international sanctions against the North were not eased, Pyongyang’s leaders turned hysterical toward Seoul.

Truly absurd is what has happened between the two Koreas in the current process to build a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula. Pyongyang -- which defies the global norm of denuclearization -- is adamantly issuing heavy bills to Seoul for its economic and diplomatic help, while the South -- which faithfully abides by all the rules and protocols of the international community -- has taken an extremely modest posture so as not to offend the North.

There is no reason why South Korea, 40 to 50 times bigger than the North in terms of economic strength, should act as timidly as does the Moon administration, which has earned the title of “North-subservient leftists” from the conservative opposition. For many South Koreans, it hurts their pride to watch their elected leaders swallow ridicule and insults from the North. They now wonder if the ruling group has been duped by nuclear blackmail.

When the North Koreans demolished the inter-Korean liaison office in the border town of Kaesong in June last year, the Blue House expressed only mild regrets. The destruction of the multistory glass structure built 10 years ago, at the cost of about $30 million drawn entirely from South Korean tax money, came a few days after the North cut the hotline linking the two sides.

The reason Pyongyang cited for the series of hostile acts was the Seoul government’s failure to stop some anti-North activists from flying leaflets across the border in balloons. The contents of the propaganda materials informing the North’s people of the evils of the Kim dynasty must be intolerable to the Pyongyang regime, but Kim Jong-un vented his anger at the continuing UN and US sanctions with these provocative acts.

The young North Korean ruler assigned his 33-year-old sister, Yo-jong, to the powerful Central Committee of the ruling Workers’ Party with the special mission of controlling matters relating to South Korea. In that position, she has almost regularly sent messages to Seoul and President Moon laced with vulgar and derogatory language.

Surprising was the incredibly fast response from Seoul’s Unification Ministry to Kim Yo-jong’s statement demanding a halt to the balloon invasion. Within hours the ministry announced plans for legislation to prohibit the dispatch of leaflets to the North, and the majority ruling party passed an amendment providing for prison terms of up to three years for violators of the ban on cross-border balloons. UN rapporteurs on human rights noted that the new law in South Korea infringed upon freedom of expression.

Pyongyang suddenly notified Seoul of its wish to restore the hotline late last month, and Moon and his aides -- who had patiently awaited the resumption of inter-Korean communication for more than a year -- were pleased. But they now have to cope with the North’s complaints about the Korea-US joint military exercise scheduled for this month.

Kim Yo-jong warned against the joint drill for its “harm to peace efforts,” threatening retaliation. Seoul’s civilian administration is reported to have advised the military to downsize the Combined Command Post Training, involving troop reinforcement from the continental US, to a quarter of what was originally planned. Opposition voices in the South said “the princess” in the North was now in remote control of inter-Korean affairs here.

All these developments forecast yet another wave of the North Wind brewing in the lead-up to a general election in the South. But recent history tells us an important thing. In October 2007, President Roh Moo-hyun visited Pyongyang to meet Kim Jong-il four months before he left the Blue House. The two leaders announced quite detailed programs for peace and economic cooperation between the two Koreas, but few of them ever materialized because power in the South went to the conservatives.

Kim Jong-un may believe that having leftists in Seoul next year will be in the interests of his regime, so he may be contemplating a dramatic peace gesture prior to the election. But he should know that wise voters here are not going to be impressed until they see real, concrete steps toward denuclearization.

Measures to reduce tension on the Korean Peninsula cannot be worked out by just one party, but require universal consent from all of South Korean society if they are to be durable and sustainable, regardless of how the North Wind blows.


Kim Myong-sik
Kim Myong-sik is a former editorial writer for The Korea Herald. -- Ed.