Now that voters have elected former army captain Jair Bolsonaro as Brazil’s new president, the country’s democracy will face a stern test. The most important question is: Can Brazilian institutions withstand the threat posed by the man’s well-documented authoritarian and illiberal streaks?Brazil transitioned to democracy more than 30 years ago, an evolution that seemed largely to have been consolidated -- witness Operation Carwash’s successful anti-corruption investigations of powerful politicia

Viewpoints Oct. 31, 2018

Most people in the island nation of Sri Lanka and its Asian neighbors were stunned last week when President Maithripala Sirisena dismissed Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe -- and replaced him with Mahinda Rajapaksa, the populist strongman who had ruled Sri Lanka for a decade before the scrappy alliance between Sirisena and Wickremesinghe forced him out of power in 2015. It was a shock not just because the move was almost certainly unconstitutional -- in Sri Lanka, a prime minister can only be

Viewpoints Oct. 31, 2018

I have warned repeatedly against writing off Chancellor Angela Merkel as she faced challenge after challenge in recent years. I’m going to issue another such warning now, even though it might seem counterintuitive given her announcement Monday that she’d give up the leadership of her Christian Democratic Union in December and not run for a parliament seat in 2021.Those decisions make Merkel a lame duck. They also make it more obvious than ever that she risks ending her final term as chancellor b

Viewpoints Oct. 31, 2018

Specific incidents can sometimes reveal much larger truths. This would seem to be the case regarding recent revelations that the Chinese have been eavesdropping on President Donald Trump’s less-than-secure phone calls and using the information gathered as part of an elaborate plot to influence the president. If true, this story -- which the president has denied -- is not only a testament to Trump’s attachment to his smartphones and his casual disregard for established security procedures. It als

Viewpoints Oct. 30, 2018

US President Donald Trump has made closing America’s trade deficit with China a top priority. The problem is, it’s growing instead. For Trump, that’s probably more proof that his tariff-heavy, get-tough approach to China is the correct strategy. For economists, it’s not such a big deal. The US economy is roaring, and roaring economies tend to import more.There’s another reason, too, that the trade balance is the wrong figure to focus on. It only captures one part of the greater economic relation

Viewpoints Oct. 29, 2018

Ice is thawing in China, and that’s a good thing.Fiscal and monetary measures should be deployed to give the economy a fillip when it’s most needed. The scope of tax cuts detailed over the weekend is a great first step: They boost consumers and might also, in the process, shore up Chinese demand for trade with the rest of Asia.Until now, policy seemed frozen in Beijing and hamstrung by competing goals. Choices are still constrained relative to past episodes of slackening economic life, but thank

Viewpoints Oct. 28, 2018

What’s the most important bit of infrastructure to connect an international metropolis like China’s Pearl River Delta? A demolished border post.For all the excitement around the opening of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau bridge Wednesday, that’s probably the best lesson to draw from Beijing’s plan to draw Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hong Kong, Dongguan, Foshan and other cities into a single megalopolis. As my colleague Nisha Gopalan wrote last month, “Build it and they will come” is a lot easier said than d

Viewpoints Oct. 25, 2018

Asia’s makeup brands are starting to look ugly.Shares of Japanese and South Korean cosmetics makers have been melting this month, as Beijing cracks down on daigou, Chinese travelers who buy everything from infant formula to skin care products for resale at home, often to friends and relatives. These shoppers tend to be university students looking to make a little extra cash or tourists scooping up duty-free items.　Added together, this is no mere pocket change. As my colleague David Fickling wrot

Viewpoints Oct. 24, 2018

Following the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, there have been many calls for re-examining the US-Saudi relationship, even for imposing sanctions. As an economist, I understand there are diplomatic fine points to this relationship that lie beyond my expertise, but still: It is worth reviewing the economic and exchange-based reasons US-Saudi relations have been so robust.First, trade between the US and Saudi Arabia is currently about $24 billion per year. You might think the US is now energy

Viewpoints Oct. 24, 2018

Last week’s European Union summit on Brexit attracted a lot of attention for little real news. To understand why the talks are so stalled, it helps to borrow a somewhat strained metaphor from Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab.When Raab, then new to the job, met the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, for the first time three months ago, he gave him a copy of Isaiah Berlin’s much-appropriated essay, “The Hedgehog and the Fox.” In it, the philosopher quotes the Greek poet Archilochus saying

Viewpoints Oct. 23, 2018

Investors are throwing billions of dollars at connected cars. The technological advances that enable vehicles to be linked into wireless networks promise greater efficiency and, in theory, safety. They also open the possibility of being watched and monitored more closely -- and that may be a problem for China’s self-proclaimed rival to Tesla.Nio, the electric vehicle maker that raised almost $1 billion in a New York initial public offering last month, is banking on its smart and connected car. B

Viewpoints Oct. 23, 2018

You’d be forgiven for thinking Chinese M&A is dead.Over the past several months, the US has led the charge among developed markets to close mainland buyers out of deals in technology and other sensitive sectors -- and scrutiny will only get worse. That’s put a lid on big-ticket acquisitions.But don’t sound the death knell: Deals are still happening, just ones that slip under the radar. Some are for small amounts in “boring” sectors, like infrastructure, logistics or health care. Others are in pl

Viewpoints Oct. 22, 2018