A high-ranking North Korean diplomat’s recent defection to the South is expected to have a substantial impact on the Kim Jong-un leadership, but local experts said it may be a stretch to see it as an omen of Pyongyang’s downfall.

Seoul’s Unification Ministry on Wednesday announced Thae Yong-ho, a minister based in London, has come to South Korea with his family and is under protection.

Thae’s defection is the latest in the recent string of defections by the North’s elite group.

Local media, citing sources, has reported that Thae and his wife are both descendants of guerillas who fought against Japanese colonialists in the 1930s, which would make them members of highly-privileged families. According to the source, Thae’s family ties had allowed him to work in overseas missions for 10 years, instead of the conventional three.

While the report pinpointed former North Korean Gen. Thae Byung-ryul as the supposed father of the diplomat, the Unification Ministry said Thae’s parentage has yet to be officially confirmed. 

Thae’s reason for defection was mainly his disdain toward the Kim’s regime and concerns for his family’s future, the ministry said.

Experts say Thae’s defection is likely to have a significant impact on Kim’s regime, as sources have said that the young leader has “become enraged” and has ordered families of overseas officials to return to North Korea.

Kim Yong-hyun, a professor of North Korean studies at Seoul’s Dongguk University, said that the regime’s unstable nature may have contributed in some part to the defection, along with recent sanctions.

“(The impact) is mostly psychological. The very fact that a high-ranking diplomat has defected deals a blow to the Kim regime, which is barely hanging on amid international sanctions and pressure,” He said.

Defection by someone from the privileged class marks a change from the past, when it was usually the underprivileged that would leave the communist state.

The South Korean government has claimed that such defections from the elite group -- who have better access to the outside world -- implies that they are losing faith in the leadership and also that a fallout among members of the core group are taking place. It has also said such defections shows that the recent UN sanctions against Pyongyang is working.

“It is quite natural for a North Korean diplomat to defect, as they are able to compare South and North Koreas while residing outside the country. I think high-ranking officials living outside North Korea will continue to defect,” said Cheong Seong-chang, a senior researcher at the Sejong Institute.

According to the report “Understanding of North Korea” by the state-run Institute for Unification Education, the communist country’s people are divided into three classes and 51 subcategories.

The de facto caste system was initiated during the reign of Kim Il-sung, the grandfather of Kim Jong-un, in 1958 and was established in 1970s after years of verification process on whether each citizen was loyal to the dictatorial regime.

The elite group makes up roughly 30 percent of the population. It includes Kim family and high-ranking officials of the government and the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea.

Most of them live in Pyongyang and enjoy benefits which the majority of the population are deprived of.

The middle class consists of ordinary citizens such as office workers, teachers, merchants and naturalized citizens from other countries. Many of them live in rural areas or smaller countries, and cannot travel to the capital without special permits.

The bottom 20 percent are the ones who have been branded as “traitors” by the reclusive regime and are deprived of many basic rights, such as the right to receive higher education, join the ruling party or become a military officer. Some are even subject to isolation and forceful labor.

While some experts have predicted the recent incident will spark a rush of even more high-profile defections, others warned against wishful thinking that the defections prelude the Kim regime’s fall.

“It is too rash to believe that the Kim leadership is faltering, just because a handful of elites have jumped ship,” said Cheong. “In order for the Kim regime to be truly under crisis, large-scale protests and uprising by the public has to take place. Yet the North’s reclusive system is repressing even the smallest of organized movements.”

He pointed out that the 1997 defection of a former WPK secretary Hwang Jang-yop failed to disrupt the dictatorial regime of North Korea.

While the Unification Ministry has seen Thae’s defection as a sign that Kim Jong-un is cornered, Kim of Dongguk University called such views “too far-fetched.”

“I don’t think it will prompt a chain reaction of North Korean elites defecting, it’s premature to predict such phenomenon. Thae’s defection is probably an independent event,” he said.

By Yoon Min-sik (minsikyoon@heraldcorp.com)