The relationship between South Korea and Japan is set to go through a sensitive time, as relations could be aggravated by a series of coming events, including Japan’s celebration of a day for Dokdo islets next month.

Analysts expressed hopes that the leaders of the two countries will meet face to face early this year in a three-way summit that also involves the Chinese leader, to explore ways to address their differences over historical and territorial issues, and forge future-oriented relations.

Seoul and Tokyo may find new momentum to restore their frayed ties on the 50th anniversary of the normalization of their diplomatic relations in June. But before that, a series of annual Japanese events are expected to negatively influence the relationship.

On Feb. 22, the Japanese prefecture of Shimane is to observe its Takeshima Day to assert Japan’s claim to Dokdo, which South Korea has effectively controlled with a small police detachment since its liberation from Japan in 1945. Takeshima is the Japanese name for the islets.

Since 2013, the Abe government has sent senior officials such as a vice ministerial figure to attend a ceremony to mark the day, prompting a strong protest from Seoul. It is expected to send its officials to the event again.

In addition to the celebration of the day, Tokyo has also created a video clip renewing its claim to Dokdo. A state agency in charge of territorial issues reportedly posted the 17-minute clip on YouTube on Dec. 24 to argue that Japanese people fished in waters surrounding Dokdo in the past.

Another obstacle to bilateral relations will be the results of Tokyo’s state approval process for middle-school textbooks, expected to be announced in late March or early April.

Last January, Tokyo announced a revision to the state teaching guidelines for middle- and high-school textbooks to reinforce its claim to Dokdo, further aggravating its diplomatic friction with Seoul.

Under the revision, Japan’s claim to Dokdo and a chain of disputed islands in the East China Sea, also claimed by China, is to be spelled out in school textbooks for history, geography and social studies.

The relationship between the old foes could also deteriorate in April when Japan is set to issue its annual foreign policy white paper.

Last year, the document said that Dokdo was part of Japan’s inherent territory according to historical fact and international law, and that the issue of its wartime sexual slavery should not be treated as a political or diplomatic problem.

In April, Japanese conservative politicians are also expected to pay respects to the war dead enshrined at the Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo, a place Seoul and Beijing see as a sign of Japan’s failure to atone for its wartime atrocities.

Despite all these hurdles, ties between Seoul and Tokyo could improve should Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe renew Tokyo’s repentance for its wartime wrongdoings and make reconciliatory gestures toward its neighbors in a statement to mark the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II in August, analysts said.

Lee Won-deog, Japan expert at Kookmin University, said that Seoul and Beijing needs to push Abe to produce a statement in August to lead Northeast Asia in a direction of reconciliation and cooperation.

“The foreign ministers of South Korea, China and Japan are to meet this month to discuss their differences. I hope that their meeting can lead to a three-way summit where the leaders could talk heart-to-heart over a range of bilateral and trilateral issues,” he said.

“It is also important for Seoul and Beijing to push Tokyo to include the content concerning the future three-way cooperation for reconciliation and regional peace in Abe’s statement to be released in August, rather than letting Abe write the statement only with his own historical views.”

By Song Sang-ho (sshluck@heraldcorp.com)