The Korea Herald

지나쌤

[Editorial] Growth at faster pace

Advisory council should think outside the box

By Yu Kun-ha

Published : May 31, 2013 - 20:32

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On Wednesday, President Park Geun-hye said slow growth was setting in for the long haul. There was nothing new about her warning. Still, it carried much weight as it indicated that her economic policy will focus on growth during the next five years of governance.

She made the remark at the inaugural conference of the National Economic Advisory Council ― a blue-ribbon panel of renowned economists and economic policymakers that is tasked with providing the president with unbiased economic analyses and advice on the development and implementation of new economic policies.

It takes no genius to conclude that the nation will be doomed if it fails to pull itself out of a long lasting slump and return to fast growth before it runs out of steam. Now the question is what policy measures the Park administration will have to take to make the economy change course.

The presidential council started its first conference on a somber note, with economic think tanks painting a gloomy picture for the nation’s growth outlook. In their joint report on the Korean economy, the Korea Development Institute, the Samsung Economic Research Institute, McKinsey and Goldman Sachs said growth would keep falling if no action is taken to reverse the trend.

According to their projection, growth, which stood at an annual average rate of 4.5 percent during 2001-10, will drop to 3.6 percent in 2011-20, 2.7 percent in 2021-30 and 1.9 percent in 2031-40. Even this forecast of a continuous slide looked rosier than warranted, given the dismally low growth rates of recent years.

During the past five years under the Lee Myung-bak administration, the annual average rate of growth was at 2.8 percent. The forcast for this year is even dimmer, with the Korea Development Institute sharing the belief with the Bank of Korea that growth will be a mere 2.6 percent.

In crafting policy proposals geared for faster growth, economists and economic policymakers on the presidential council will have to think outside the box. That was what the president demanded when she said the nation needs a shift in paradigm if it is to turn its catch-up economy into a creative economy that will be “preemptive in its response to future trends.”

For instance, the council could propose that the nation formally abandon its one-race policy in favor of a multiracial one, taking in economically active immigrants as an antidote to a fast aging society. A run-of-the-mill population policy could hardly forestall the super-aged society that Korea will become in 2026 ― the year when those aged 65 or older are predicted to surpass 20 percent of the population.

For her part, Park herself will also have to think outside the box. She will have to accept unconventional, yet not unreasonable, ideas if she is truly determined to push for a shift in paradigm in favor of faster growth.